2026 is widely expected to be a high-growth year for Vietnam’s economy. But for businesses, it will not be an easy race for expansion. When orders are unstable, costs continue to rise, and policy space narrows, growth is no longer an obvious destination. Instead, it becomes a harsh test of fundamentals, resilience, and the ability to endure in a new cycle of volatility.
2026, therefore, is not merely a question of growth. It is the year when growth becomes more expensive, and only companies with real foundations will be able to afford its cost.
A Business Landscape with Many Shades of Gray Ahead of 2026
In the final months of 2025, news that Panko Vina, an FDI garment manufacturer operating for more than two decades in Mỹ Phước Industrial Park, would shut down in early February 2026 drew widespread attention. The factory once employed around 2,700 workers and was considered a symbol of employment stability in the locality. It was forced to close after failing to secure new orders amid weakening global demand.
This was not an isolated case. Prior to that, dozens of companies across industrial zones in the city had suspended production, subleased factory space, or converted facilities into logistics warehouses to survive.
Pressure is spreading across the manufacturing sector, particularly in labor-intensive industries such as garments, footwear, wood products, and electronics. Although export turnover in 2025 recovered from the 2023 low, many companies report that orders remain volatile, contract durations are shorter, and profit margins have narrowed significantly.
According to Pham Xuan Hong, Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Textile & Garment Association, entering 2026 many businesses only have monthly or quarterly orders, instead of six-month commitments as in previous periods. This makes long-term production planning increasingly risky and forces companies into a defensive yet uncertain operating mode.
The wood industry, which achieved export turnover of over USD 17 billion in 2025, is seen as having made strong efforts under difficult conditions. However, the outlook for 2026 remains cautious due to trade policy uncertainty and fragile consumer demand in the U.S. and Europe. The rubber–plastic sector is forecast to grow only 5–7% as overall demand recovers slowly.
Beyond manufacturing, retail and services in major cities such as Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi have also seen a wave of store closures and lease returns ahead of the Lunar New Year. In 2025, approximately 227,200 businesses exited the market, up nearly 15% year-on-year — an average of almost 19,000 businesses per month.
The common thread across these sectors is not absolute decline, but the fact that risk has shifted from short-term shocks to a prolonged, less predictable, and harder-to-defend state.
When Growth Is No Longer an Obvious Objective
Entering 2026, amid uncertainty in major export markets such as the U.S., EU, and Japan, many businesses have proactively adjusted their strategic targets. Instead of prioritizing revenue growth, they are shifting focus toward maintaining scale, preserving cash flow, and keeping operations stable.
Sharing her outlook for 2026, Do Thi Kim Loan, CEO of Sao Nam Trading–Manufacturing Co., said the company is not pursuing high growth in a high-risk environment. Its priority is to stabilize operations, optimize costs, maintain production and employment, and prepare capabilities for the next recovery cycle.
“For us, 2026 is a year of adaptation and flexibility. Selling more with reasonable margins, controlling cash flow, and staying ahead of the market matter more than aggressive growth,” she said.
This approach reflects a fundamental shift in business mindset: growth is no longer measured by expansion speed, but by the ability to endure. As capital costs, compliance costs, and market risks all rise, preserving production capacity, workforce stability, and financial health becomes essential.
At the macro level, if 2025 was a year of “maintaining momentum,” then 2026 represents a new threshold: growth must now be grounded in real foundations, and the question is whether businesses are strong enough to shoulder a central role.
The National Assembly’s target of 10%+ growth is not just an ambitious figure; it places direct reform pressure on the business environment. As experts such as Dr. Phan Duc Hieu point out, the challenge is not the high target itself, but the ability to pursue growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability as policy space narrows.
Resolution 244/2025/QH15 therefore places institutional reform at the center, emphasizing cost reduction and barrier removal for businesses — particularly cutting compliance time and administrative burdens. However, for businesses, costs do not arise only from regulations, but also from delays and inconsistencies in implementation — an invisible yet very real burden.
2026: The True Stress Test
Concrete pressures for 2026 are already visible. The December 2025 PMI report by S&P Global shows that new export orders declined again after three months of growth, while input costs rose at the fastest pace since June 2022 due to raw material shortages and exchange rate volatility.
Despite this, businesses continue to purchase inputs to sustain production — reflecting a defining mindset of 2026: cautious, yet stretched, as financial safety margins continue to thin.
Risks are converging into a new “cross-section”:
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rising capital and compliance costs
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narrowing market and policy space
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geopolitical conflict, protectionism, financial risk, and climate change exerting simultaneous pressure
Domestically, slow recovery in private investment and consumption, high logistics costs, and institutional delays mean that every business decision becomes more expensive and more risky.
2026 as a Year of Selection
The fact that more than 227,000 businesses exited the market in 2025 shows that a selection process has already begun. Capital has not disappeared, but it is being reallocated based on the quality of business foundations.
Companies with:
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strong governance
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legal compliance
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sound financial control
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proactive digital and green transformation
will gain advantage as the business environment becomes cleaner and more disciplined. In contrast, models built on low costs, policy loopholes, or aggressive expansion will find survival increasingly difficult.
In a growth cycle that is becoming increasingly “real,” the decisive question is not only which companies can move forward, but also which foundations the policy system supports — and which it unintentionally pushes out.
2026, therefore, is not merely a year of growth. It is a true test of the structural strength of Vietnamese enterprises.
Learn more about Misamex’s knowledge in Vietnam:
m. (+84) 902 944 134 | e. xnyder@misamex.vn | w. https://misamex.vn/
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